2014 Week 12 Best bets

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keirre21
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2014 Week 12 Best bets

Postby keirre21 » Sat Nov 15, 2014 4:57 pm

Rough week, last week, as road teams failed to show up in many cases


No ML plays this week just pure point spreads.


1.) LocK FSU (-3 @ +100) at Miami

It amazed many when FSU was under a FG favorite when the line hit the public, but not me, the week before Vegas said that FSU xhould only be -1 at Miami. This situation reminds me of a game in the early 2000's when Ken Dorsey and Miami went into Knoxville and everyone thought a 3 loss Tennessee team had a chance to beat them. I just don't see it. Miami has been playing better on defense late and FSU is only 2-7 ATS this season but there is no way I see FSSU losing a shootout to Miami ( which it would have to be since FSU has scored 31+ in all of Jameis Winston's starts). Noles win this one going away.

2.)Mississippi State (+10) at Bama

I assumed the opening line would be -5 Bama bout it was -7, so I jumped on it. Silly me, as the line is up to 10 pts. All preseason Miss. State's coaching staff said this is the first year that they had SEC caliber depth (especially on defense). I think Dak Prescott should cause major issues for Bama and I don't think Bama will hold up well in coverage vs the big WRs of Miss. State. However,I don't see the bulldogs holding up well against the pass vs Bama. This game will come down to turnovers. If Bama plays clean they win this game easily, if Mississippi State goes +1 or better in the turnover department they maintain their undefeated season.

3.) Arizona State at Oregon State (+7)

I got this game at Oreg State +9.5. My main reason for likely the beavers in this game is the clear letdown spot for Arizona State. I still don't think Taylor Kelly is playing great football and in what will be a cold, damp, ugly game I think the Beavers keep the game within a Fg

4.) Nebraska (+6) at Wisconsin

I felt like I've been underestimating Nebraska all season. Tommy Armstrong has been better than I though and I think he has a good game vs a tough Wisconsin D. I still don't trust Wisky QB Joel Stave and I think if Nebraska can hold the Badgers to under 200 yards on the ground they win. This is the game I'm actually looking forward to the most today

5.) Va Tech (-3.5) at Duke

To be honest, it harrrrrrrrrrrrrd to trust Va Tech this season. THey turn the ball over far too much and their vaunted secondary has been torched many times this season, while teams who wanted to run have had their way with them. I took this game at Va Tech +6.5 when it opened. Typically, Imwould say the value is gone but with over 71% of the public bets on Duke, the line has dropped 3 entire points. I think Va Tech can pull the upset. The main reason is because Duke's front 4 gets no pressure and Va Tech QB Michael Brewer is excellent when not pressured (terrible otherwise). Take the 3.5 and sprinkle some on the ML.

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Re: 2014 Week 12 Best bets

Postby tecmoaddict » Sat Nov 15, 2014 6:33 pm

keirre21 wrote:Rough week, last week, as road teams failed to show up in many cases


No ML plays this week just pure point spreads.


1.) LocK FSU (-3 @ +100) at Miami

It amazed many when FSU was under a FG favorite when the line hit the public, but not me, the week before Vegas said that FSU xhould only be -1 at Miami. This situation reminds me of a game in the early 2000's when Ken Dorsey and Miami went into Knoxville and everyone thought a 3 loss Tennessee team had a chance to beat them. I just don't see it. Miami has been playing better on defense late and FSU is only 2-7 ATS this season but there is no way I see FSSU losing a shootout to Miami ( which it would have to be since FSU has scored 31+ in all of Jameis Winston's starts). Noles win this one going away.

2.)Mississippi State (+10) at Bama

I assumed the opening line would be -5 Bama bout it was -7, so I jumped on it. Silly me, as the line is up to 10 pts. All preseason Miss. State's coaching staff said this is the first year that they had SEC caliber depth (especially on defense). I think Dak Prescott should cause major issues for Bama and I don't think Bama will hold up well in coverage vs the big WRs of Miss. State. However,I don't see the bulldogs holding up well against the pass vs Bama. This game will come down to turnovers. If Bama plays clean they win this game easily, if Mississippi State goes +1 or better in the turnover department they maintain their undefeated season.

3.) Arizona State at Oregon State (+7)

I got this game at Oreg State +9.5. My main reason for likely the beavers in this game is the clear letdown spot for Arizona State. I still don't think Taylor Kelly is playing great football and in what will be a cold, damp, ugly game I think the Beavers keep the game within a Fg

4.) Nebraska (+6) at Wisconsin

I felt like I've been underestimating Nebraska all season. Tommy Armstrong has been better than I though and I think he has a good game vs a tough Wisconsin D. I still don't trust Wisky QB Joel Stave and I think if Nebraska can hold the Badgers to under 200 yards on the ground they win. This is the game I'm actually looking forward to the most today

5.) Va Tech (-3.5) at Duke

To be honest, it harrrrrrrrrrrrrd to trust Va Tech this season. THey turn the ball over far too much and their vaunted secondary has been torched many times this season, while teams who wanted to run have had their way with them. I took this game at Va Tech +6.5 when it opened. Typically, Imwould say the value is gone but with over 71% of the public bets on Duke, the line has dropped 3 entire points. I think Va Tech can pull the upset. The main reason is because Duke's front 4 gets no pressure and Va Tech QB Michael Brewer is excellent when not pressured (terrible otherwise). Take the 3.5 and sprinkle some on the ML.


I hope youre right about MSU. alabama is high on my hate list (up there with fsu & uga).
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